Circuit Bahrain Grand Prix
Race Distance 57 laps
Safety Car HIGH
Pit Loss 22.0s
Compounds SOFT / MEDIUM / HARD
Model notes — Degradation fitted from 112,732 stint-laps across 2020–2025 using quadratic multiple regression (separating fuel burn from tyre wear). Piecewise cliff model fitted per compound per circuit. Base pace corrected using FP2 session data, validated against race pace gaps. Pirelli circuit ratings applied as fallback for data-sparse circuits. Track temperature scaling applied to cliff degradation rates. Pit windows show lap range within 1.5s of optimal. Known limitation: at high-lateral circuits (Suzuka, Zandvoort) the model may underweight MEDIUM→HARD strategies — tyre temperature management behaviour is not captured in public FastF1 timing data. Safety car probability scales pit loss by 1.0× / 0.85× / 0.70×.
Top 5 Strategies — Lap Chart
SOFTMEDIUMHARDPit stop
Strategy Lap Chart Race Time
★ SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUM
OPTIMAL
SOFT
SOFT
MEDIUM
92m 5.211s
SOFT → MEDIUM → SOFT
+0.145s
SOFT
MEDIUM
SOFT
92m 5.356s
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT
+1.369s
MEDIUM
SOFT
SOFT
92m 6.580s
SOFT → SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUM
+1.414s
SOFT
SOFT
SOFT
MEDIUM
92m 6.625s
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT → SOFT
+1.791s
MEDIUM
SOFT
SOFT
SOFT
92m 7.002s
Pit Windows (±1.5s)
SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUMStop 1: Lap 19–26 · Stop 2: Lap 42–49
SOFT → MEDIUM → SOFTStop 1: Lap 19–27 · Stop 2: Lap 30–38
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFTStop 1: Lap 8–15 · Stop 2: Lap 30–37
SOFT → SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUMStop 1: Lap 17–24 · Stop 2: Lap 31–38 · Stop 3: Lap 45–52
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT → SOFTStop 1: Lap 5–12 · Stop 2: Lap 19–26 · Stop 3: Lap 33–40
Tyre Model — Bahrain Grand Prix
Compound Base Pace Deg Rate Fuel Rate Data Points Max Stint Source
SOFT97.025s+0.0877s/lap-0.0632s/lapR²=0.385n=1475max=34laps[FP2]
MEDIUM98.101s+0.0848s/lap-0.0638s/lapR²=0.137n=1420max=47laps[FP2 capped]
HARD98.601s+0.0395s/lap-0.0599s/lapR²=0.138n=2396max=47laps[?]