Circuit
Bahrain Grand Prix
Race Distance
57 laps
Safety Car
HIGH
Pit Loss
22.0s
Compounds
SOFT / MEDIUM / HARD
Model notes —
Degradation fitted from 112,732 stint-laps across
2020–2025 using quadratic multiple regression
(separating fuel burn from tyre wear).
Piecewise cliff model fitted per compound per circuit.
Base pace corrected using FP2 session data,
validated against race pace gaps.
Pirelli circuit ratings applied as fallback for
data-sparse circuits. Track temperature scaling
applied to cliff degradation rates.
Pit windows show lap range within 1.5s of optimal.
Known limitation: at high-lateral circuits (Suzuka,
Zandvoort) the model may underweight MEDIUM→HARD
strategies — tyre temperature management behaviour
is not captured in public FastF1 timing data.
Safety car probability scales pit loss by
1.0× / 0.85× / 0.70×.
Top 5 Strategies — Lap Chart
SOFTMEDIUMHARD│ Pit stop
| Strategy |
Lap Chart |
Race Time |
★ SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUM
OPTIMAL
|
|
92m 5.211s
|
SOFT → MEDIUM → SOFT
+0.145s
|
|
92m 5.356s
|
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT
+1.369s
|
|
92m 6.580s
|
SOFT → SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUM
+1.414s
|
|
92m 6.625s
|
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT → SOFT
+1.791s
|
|
92m 7.002s
|
Pit Windows (±1.5s)
SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUMStop 1: Lap 19–26 · Stop 2: Lap 42–49
SOFT → MEDIUM → SOFTStop 1: Lap 19–27 · Stop 2: Lap 30–38
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFTStop 1: Lap 8–15 · Stop 2: Lap 30–37
SOFT → SOFT → SOFT → MEDIUMStop 1: Lap 17–24 · Stop 2: Lap 31–38 · Stop 3: Lap 45–52
MEDIUM → SOFT → SOFT → SOFTStop 1: Lap 5–12 · Stop 2: Lap 19–26 · Stop 3: Lap 33–40
Tyre Model — Bahrain Grand Prix
| Compound |
Base Pace |
Deg Rate |
Fuel Rate |
R² |
Data Points |
Max Stint |
Source |
| SOFT | 97.025s | +0.0877s/lap | -0.0632s/lap | R²=0.385 | n=1475 | max=34laps | [FP2] |
| MEDIUM | 98.101s | +0.0848s/lap | -0.0638s/lap | R²=0.137 | n=1420 | max=47laps | [FP2 capped] |
| HARD | 98.601s | +0.0395s/lap | -0.0599s/lap | R²=0.138 | n=2396 | max=47laps | [?] |